An Education Needs Assessment of CARIFORUM Firms

An Education Needs Assessment of CARIFORUM Firms

Prepared by:

The Shridath Ramphal Centre for International Trade Law Policy and Services

October 31 st , 2022

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 3

Background .......................................................................................................................................................3

Key Deliverables & Outline .............................................................................................................................3

SECTION I: DESK RESEARCH ................................................................................................................. 5

Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................5

1.1. Global Influences and Future of Work Impact ..........................................................................................5 1.1.1. Technological Progress ................................................................................................................................................. 6 1.1.2. Globalization ................................................................................................................................................................. 9 1.2.3. Demographical Change ............................................................................................................................................... 13 1.2. An Overview of Existing Regional & National Skills Demand ..............................................................15 1.2.1. Regional and National Sector/Developmental Priorities ............................................................................................. 16 1.2.2. Skills Gaps Among CARIFORUM’s Private Sector & Wider Labour Market ........................................................... 19 1.3. Systemic Constraints Limiting Regional and National Skills Supply .....................................................28 1.3.1. Mismatch Between Training Programmes and Private Sector Skills Needs ................................................................ 28 1.3.2. Labour Market Demographics and Mobility Across CARICOM ................................................................................ 31

Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................................33

SECTION II: PRIMARY RESEARCH REPORT ...................................................................................... 34

Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................34

2.1 Methodology .............................................................................................................................................34 2.1.1 Research Design, Context and Sampling ...................................................................................................................... 34 2.1.2 Description of the Primary Survey Instrument ............................................................................................................. 36 2.1.3 Pre-test, Training and Data-Collection Procedures ...................................................................................................... 37 2.1.4 Assessment of Risks, Concerns and Other Implications in Data-Collection ................................................................ 39 2.1.5 Research Limitations .................................................................................................................................................... 40 2.1.6 Stakeholder Engagement/Interviews ............................................................................................................................ 40 2.2 Data Presentation and Discussion of Findings .........................................................................................41 2.2.1. Survey Results and Findings ....................................................................................................................................... 41 2.2.2. Results from Consultations with Relevant Stakeholders ............................................................................................. 53

2.3 Conclusions ..............................................................................................................................................57

SECTION III: RECOMMENDATIONS & COURSE OUTLINES ........................................................... 59

3.1 Recommendations ....................................................................................................................................59

3.2 Course Outlines ........................................................................................................................................61 3.2.1 Digital/ICT-Related Courses ........................................................................................................................................ 61 3.2.2. Business Management/Entrepreneurial Related Courses ............................................................................................ 64 3.2.3. Export-related Courses ................................................................................................................................................ 67

REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................... 69

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INTRODUCTION

Background

The Caribbean Export Development Agency (hereinafter “ Caribbean Export ”) , is responsible for

increasing the competitiveness of the 15 CARIFORUM countries (comprising Antigua and

Barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana,

Haiti, Jamaica, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname and

Trinidad and Tobago) through the provision of quality export development and trade and

investment promotion services through effective programme execution and strategic alliances.

Caribbean Export ’ s work programme is built on several key objectives, notably: increasing trade,

business intelligence and research capacity within CARIFORUM; fostering access to finance for

export-ready small and medium enterprises; strengthening regional investment promotion

agencies’ capacity; facil itating export development and promotion; reinforcing advocacy for an

enabling environment and ensuring sustainable corporate capacity building.

The overall objective of the Consultancy between the Shridath Ramphal Centre for International

Trade Law Policy and Services ( hereinafter “ SRC ” ) (as Consultant) and Caribbean Export

(hereinafter the “Consultancy” ) is to conduct a needs assessment of the educational demands of

firms operating in the across CARIFORUM. The Consultancy also seeks to identify niche areas in

which Caribbean Export can provide training and highlight three (3) or more short courses in the

priority areas to simultaneously assist CARIFORUM service providers in the expansion of their

capacity while positioning Caribbean Export as a knowledge hub to develop and offer

transformative and strategic training for the corporate sector.

The agreement for the Consultancy was entered into between the SRC and Caribbean Export on

20 May, 2022, with a duration of 15 June, 2022 to 30 September, 2022. Due to data collection

constraints in several target countries, a request was made by the SRC to extend the termination

date for the Consultancy by one month to 30 October, 2022. That request was approved by

Caribbean Export.

Key Deliverables & Outline

Against this background, the specific objectives of the Consultancy are as follows:

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1. To identify the educational needs of firms operating within the CARIFORUM economies.

2. To identify three (3) or more short courses with the aim of strengthening the capacity of

firms to take advantage of opportunities which exist in regional and global markets.

3. To identify general areas of training needs of the corporate sector internationally.

4. To provide recommendations on the role of Caribbean Export in bridging that gap and

fostering the development of the private sector and becoming the knowledge hub of the

Caribbean.

This final report compiles the final versions of all reports listed under key deliverables as requested

within the Terms of Reference. Consequently, this final report comprises 3 main sections, notably:

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Section I: Desk Research Report

•

Section II: Primary Research Report

• Section III: Recommendations and Course Outlines Report

Pursuant to the Inception Report, and Sections 2 and 3(B) of the Terms of Reference of the

Consultancy, the SRC submitted its Inception Report (reflected as an attachment to this Report)

on 1 July, 2022 and Reports 1 and 2 (reflected in Sections I and II of this Report) on 16 September,

2022.

Disclaimer: This publication was produced with the financial support of the European Union. Its

contents are the sole responsibility of the Caribbean Export Development Agency and do not

necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.

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SECTION I: DESK RESEARCH

Introduction

An education needs assessment comprises different activities aimed at assessing the training needs

of the labour force in a strategic way using consistent and systematic methods (ILO 2015). An

essential component of this assessment involves identifying and understanding the sources of skills

imbalance driven by structural and cyclical factors influencing the demand and supply of skills

(OECD 2017a). Drawing on existing research, this section examines the main drivers influencing

the demand and supply of skills across CARIFORUM states to identify potential sources of

imbalance. These include the international environment and global forces, especially as it relates

to the future of work; regional and national developmental priorities, which are achieved in tandem

with the private sector; and systemic constraints which limit the region’s human resource capacity.

The outline for this section follows:

1.1. Global Influences and Future of Work Impact

1.2. An Overview of Existing Regional & National Skills Demand

1.3. Systemic Constraints Limiting Regional & National Skills Supply

1.1. Global Influences and Future of Work Impact

CARIFORUM comprises small open economies increasingly integrated into the global economic

landscape. Consequently, these economies are influenced by global trends and shocks, making it

important to understand the international influence on the future of work and the associated

demand for education and skills development. Technological progress, globalization and

demographic change are the leading global trends shaping the future of work (OECD 2017a;

Chandy 2017; Schwartz et al. 2016), and in many cases are mutually reinforcing. This section

provides an overview of global influences and the future of work impact to identify anticipated

skills that CARIFORUM states will need to consider to future-proof their competitiveness.

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1.1.1. Technological Progress

Tech-Focused Skills Emanating from Technological Progress

Robotic Process Automation, Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, the Internet of Things, Big Data,

3D Printing, and Augmented and Virtual Reality are some of the popular technological

breakthroughs transitioning the operating paradigm of companies from being human resource

intensive to technology-centric (Medium 2018; APEC Transportation Working Group 2021;

OECD 2017a; OECD 2019a). The World Economic Forum (2020) predicts that by 2025 “ fourth

industrial revolution ” technologies will create 97 million new jobs and displace 85 million,

creating a positive net effect of 12 million jobs, with 50% of all employees needing to be reskilled

(see Table 1). These technologies are also fundamentally transforming the type of labour required,

as organizations’ talent needs move away “from people following processes and supported by

technology, to technology following processes and supervised by people” (Medium 2018; Nunes

2021). Subsequently, digital transformation, which the COVID-19 pandemic has also accelerated,

demands a range of tech-focused skills (see Text Box 1).

Table 1: Predicted Technology Impact on Global Job Landscape

GROWING JOB DEMAND

DECREASING JOB DEMAND

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.

Data Analysts and Scientists

1. 2.

Data Entry Clerks

AI and Machine Learning Specialists

Administrative and Executive Secretaries

Big Data Specialists

3. Accounting, Bookkeeping and Payroll Clerks 4. Accountants and Auditors 5. Assembly and Factory Workers 6. Business Services and Administration Managers 7. Client Information and Customer Service Workers 8. General and Operations Managers 9. Mechanics and Machines Repairers 10. Material-Recording and Stock Keeping Clerks

Digital Marketing and Strategy Specialists Process Automation Specialists Business Development Professionals Digital Transformation Specialists

Information Security Analysts

Software and Applications Developers

10. Internet of Things Specialists

Source: World Economic Forum (2020)

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Text Box 1: Highly Demanded Tech-Focused Skills

Tech-focused skills are among the top upskilling needs identified by organizations and professionals. Multiple reports indicate high demand for skills in Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning ; Virtual & Augmented Reality ; Data Science & Big Data Analytics ; Automation ; Blockchain ; Cybersecurity ; Cloud Computing ; Coding ; Software & Mobile App Development ; FinTech ; User Experience (UX) & User Interface (UI) Design ; and Digital Marketing & Video Production . Beyond hard skills, the pervasive nature of technology throughout organizations calls for staff-wide upskilling in fundamental digital skills such as: Digital Fluency and Citizenship (digital literacy, digital learning, digital collaboration, digital ethics); Software Use and Development (programming literacy, data analysis and statistics, computational and algorithmic thinking) and Understanding Digital Systems (data literacy, cybersecurity literacy, smart systems, tech translation and enablement).

UNCTAD outlines four different levels of digital skills which are needed based on the type of technology interaction.

Sources: Stahl (2021); UNCTAD (2018); Mcnamee (2021); McKinsey & Company (2021); Van Nuys (2019); Zavyiboroda (2022)

Annex 1 provides a snapshot of the predicted technology adoption and associated skills impact across 15 key sectors 1 , many of which are regional and national priority sectors of CARIFORUM

states (as later outlined in subsection1.2.1).

1 Advanced manufacturing; agriculture, food and beverage; automotive; consumer; digital communications and information technology; education; energy, utilities and technologies; financial services; government and public sector; health and healthcare; manufacturing; mining and metals; oil and gas; professional services; transportation and storage

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Technological progress is also developing new industries and, in turn, new jobs. McKinsey &

Company (2021) identify seven cross-industry trends, which include: (i) next-level process

automation and visualization; (ii) future of connectivity; (iii) distributed infrastructure; (iv) next

generation computing; (v) applied artificial intelligence; (vi) future of programming and (vii) trust

architecture; and three industry-specific trends: (i) bio revolution; (ii) next-generation materials;

and (iii) future of clean technologies. Global IT services provider, Cognizant (2017), identifies 21

new job types that they expect to emerge within the next ten years. The most tech-centric include

Quantum Machine Learning Analyst, Master of Edge Computing, Augmented Reality Journey

Builder, Genetic Diversity Officer, AI-Assisted Healthcare Technician, Cyber City Analyst, Data

Detective, Chief Trust Officer, Financial Wellness Coach and Genomic Portfolio Director

(Cognizant 2017).

Skills demand in CARIFORUM states is already being shaped by technological progress.

Emanating from the COVID-19 pandemic is a regional thrust towards digital transformation,

evidenced by calls to accelerate the CARICOM Single ICT Space, the launch of the CARICOM

Digital Skills Taskforce, the World Bank-funded Caribbean Digital Transformation Project, which

has a digital skills and technology adoption component, and several national digital transformation

drives (OECS 2022a; CARICOM 2022a). Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, visible engagements

with emerging technologies can be found primarily in the FinTech space with the launch of central

bank digital currency pilots in the Bahamas (Sand Dollar – now fully operational), the OECS

(DCash) and Jamaica (JAM-DEX). Initiatives like Tech Beach Retreat are also accelerating the

emergence of tech start-ups across the region, likely increasing the region’s interaction with

emerging technology solutions (CARICOM Today 2021).

Rising Importance of Soft Skills Amidst Technological Progress

Beyond tech-focused and hard skills, there is a growing demand in the future of work for uniquely

human skills that cannot be replicated by robots, computers, or machines (Lau 2021; UNCTAD

2018; McKinsey and Company 2022). Occupations requiring a higher degree of creativity,

innovation and sophisticated communication skills are less susceptible to digitization and

computerization (UNCTAD 2018). Based on Deloitte Access Economics forecasts, two-thirds of

all jobs will be soft-skill intensive by 2030 (Deloitte 2017). Chandy (2017) warns that narrow

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analysis of the future of work tends to prioritize STEM-related skills, failing to account for the

changing organization of economic activity toward micro-entrepreneurship, which brings into

focus the significance of soft skills and business skills for the future of work. As the digital

economy grows, more countries increasingly recognise the importance of soft skills for digital

entrepreneurship (UNCTAD 2018; Chandy 2017). Table 2 identifies some complementary soft

skills for the future of work.

Table 2: Complementary soft skills for the future workforce

Source: UNCTAD (2018)

1.1.2. Globalization

Trade liberalization, technological advancements, and innovations in a business organization

create global value chains that integrate more countries into the global market (OECD 2017a).

Global value chains (GVCs) describe the international production-sharing phenomenon where the

range of economic activities involved in producing a product or service is divided and carried out

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across different countries (Seric and Siong Tong 2019; OECD 2022). GVCs contributed to

productivity growth and job creation. They increased living standards, allowing governments to

leap-frog their development process by moving to higher-value-added tasks and embedding more

technology into their production processes (World Bank 2022). However, gains from GVC

participation are not automatic but depend on both firm-specific characteristics (high labour

productivity, large firm size, foreign ownership, and high technological capability) and country

related factors (openness to trade and foreign direct investment inflows, availability of educated

people, well-developed infrastructure, efficient logistics, and good governance) (Urata and Baek

2020; Raei, Ignatenko, and Mircheva 2019).

Of particular importance is the relationship between skills and participation in GVCs. Based on

the Heckscher-Ohlin model of international trade, which explains trade as differences in factor

endowments, skills are a critical component of a country’s comparative advantage in GVCs,

whereby a country whose workforce is more skilled than another can specialize in high-skilled

activities (Chor 2010; OECD 2017b). Consequently, beyond the population's education level,

countries are increasingly competing through the quality of skills and the effective use and efficient

allocation of skills to industries (OECD 2017b).

Regarding relevant skills for GVC participation, empirical research by Grundke et al. (2017) found

four key findings. Firstly, cognitive skills (literacy, numeracy and problem-solving) strongly relate

to labour productivity and GVC integration in all industries, regardless of industry-specific

characteristics. Secondly, task-based skills are more industry and occupation-specific, but ICT

skills, management and communication skills, and readiness to learn to show a significant positive correlation with productivity and forward integration 2 into GVCs for all industries. Thirdly, the specialisation of industries in specific tasks positively relates to productivity and forward integration into GVCs. Fourthly, with increasing servicification of GVCS 3 , services specializing

in marketing, accounting, management, and communication tasks show a higher forward

integration in GVCs than services that do not mainly specialize in those tasks.

2 Forward linkages capture the extent to which domestically produced goods and services are used in the production of foreign exports (Blyde and Trachtenberg 2020). 3 Servicification of GVCs refers to the increasing reliance of the manufacturing sector on services whether as inputs, as activities within firms, or as output sold bundled with goods (National Board of Trade 2016).

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For specialization in GVCs of the most technologically advanced industries, countries require a

population which, on average, has a level of the primary skill needed for the industry at a rate

higher than that of other skills and in other countries, and those with the higher level of the primary

skills must have the right mix of skills (i.e. social and emotional skills including managing,

communicating, self-organising skills and readiness to learn that complement cognitive skills such

as literacy, numeracy and problem-solving within technology-rich environments)(OECD 2017b).

According to OECD (2017b), “a country with a skills mix that is well aligned with the skills

requirements of technologically advanced industries can specialise in these industries on average

10% more than other countries.” Meanwhile , countries need a pool of qualified workers for

increased participation in high-tech manufacturing and business service industries. According to

OECD (2017b) “countries with such workers can specialise in these industries on average 2%

more than countries with skills outcomes are less certain.”

Table 3 presents findings from the International Labour Organization’s Skills for Trade and

Economic Diversification Programme, highlighting some of the current and future skills needed across nineteen tradeable sectors. 4

Table 3: The Skills for Trade and Economic Diversification (STED) Program findings

Common business capability bottlenecks

Examples of linked occupational skill areas

Efficiency and effectiveness of operations

• Technical skills of machine operators, assemblers, crafts, technicians etc. • Production management skills, including people management and engineering • Core and “soft” skills of workers at all levels required for modern work organization and productivity improvement

Compliance with standards and regulations

• • • • • • • • • • • • •

Quality assurance and compliance skills

Regulatory management skills

Laboratory scientist and technician skills

Document management skills

Marketing, sales and channel management

Marketing skills, channel management skills

Sales management skills Sales skills

Teleservice skills

Innovation, design and product development

Development engineering and science skills

Design skills

Process engineering skills

Marketing skills

Supply-chain management and logistics

Logistics management and work skills Sourcing and procurement skills

4 These findings were obtained from 19 tradable sectors in 11 developing countries in Africa, Asia and Europe - 8 of these analyses have been in agro-food or food processing; 4 in tourism and hospitality; 2 in pharmaceuticals manufacture; 2 in metals and metallurgy; and 1 each in ready-made garments; furniture; and a composite “light manufacturing” sector.

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•

Supply-chain management skills

Value-chain development

• Key skills outside the exporting sector that contribute to the sector’s success, e.g., for food-processing: agronomy, food safety and logistics management skills

Source: ILO (2021)

Latin America and the Caribbean have demonstrated weak levels of international integration and

limited participation in GVCs compared to other regions (Rocha and Ruta 2022). The

competitiveness of firms influences participation in GVCs, and several skills-related factors limit CARIFORUM firms’ competitiveness which hinders their participation in GVCs. 5 For example,

access to finance is a significant constraint. Among the factors limiting Caribbean SMEs' access

to finance is their limited ability to create clear, comprehensive, and compelling business plans

supported by economically viable financial projections (Cowen et al. 2022). Skilled labour is also

limited, with several CARIFORUM states lagging compared to other economies with similar per

capita in terms of education and skills matching with the private sector (Acevedo, Borensztein and

Lennon 2019). This contributes to the region’s low productivity levels, w ith firms identifying an

inadequately educated workforce as the most severe obstacle to improving performance (Valencia

2020). Low productivity has been cited as a limitation of Caribbean export ers/countries’ ability to

exploit trade opportunities (Valencia 2020). Effective technology use and information on foreign

markets also hinder the region’s GVC participation. According to M cLean and Charles (2020), the

lack of expertise or the resources needed to conduct or to outsource market research/intelligence

has been a constraint to increasing exports for several CARIFORUM countries. Additionally,

despite the 82.33% of the Caribbean's workforce that has an advanced education (CAIPA 2022), a

large part of the labour force is not equipped to use high-level knowledge or technology in the

production system. The case study below highlights some of these challenges (see Text Box 2).

5 Note that there are several non-skills related factors that limit the competitiveness of CARIFORUM firms, but focus is attributed to skills related factors for the purpose of this study.

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Text Box 2 : Jamaica’s Business Process Offshore Services Industry Case Study

CASE STUDY - JAMAICA

In 2018, a case study was undertaken examining Jamaica’s position in the offshore services industry. At this stage Jamaica was in the early stages of the value chain with firms providing customer support services mainly composed of third-party call centers fr om the United States. In 2016, Jamaica’s offshore services industry employed over 25,141 persons. An important determinant for participation in the value chain is the availability of human capital expertise as well as labour costs. Applicants are screened based on their formal education mainly at the tertiary level and to a lesser extent graduates. Secondary level educated employees are given competency evaluations to assess critical skills. These skills (which are applied consistently across countries in the value chain) include thinking, creativity, and complex problem solving. One major challenge however threatening Jamaica’s competitiveness in enhancing or upgrading its participation in the value chain is the adequacy of the quality education needed to meet the demands of the offshore services industry.* Students from the tertiary level for example lacked the most basic technical and soft skills to become employable and to ensure quality delivery of high value-added services, even in the lowest segment of the GVC. These skills included: 1. Technical skills -basic computer literacy, communication, written and oral English. 2. Soft skills - work ethic, leadership, service orientation and multi-tasking. 3. Relevant domain proficiencies - accounting, data encoding, graphic design, web analytics, audit.

* Reasons quoted for this includes inequitable access to tertiary studies and brain drain

Source: Couto and Fernandez-Stark (2018)

Some future opportunities for CARIFORUM states to participate in GVCs include agriculture with

a focus on high-value goods, outsourcing with a focus on evolving toward higher value services,

creative industries, health and wellness sector, and blue and green economies, among others (see

Annex 2 for a more detailed list of some future GVC opportunities for CARIFORUM states).

1.2.3. Demographical Change

Demographical change is a defining and complex feature of the labour market, with considerable

heterogeneity across regions. For example, the working-age population in Sub-Saharan Africa is

expected to increase between 2015 to 2040 but stagnate in Latin America and decrease in East

Asia and advanced economies (ILO 2019). From a global perspective, approximately 40 million

people will enter the labour market annually, creating a need for 520 million new jobs by 2030 to

match this projected increase. If one considers increases in female and older worker labour force

participation and migration flows, this number is likely to be higher as even more jobs will be

needed (ILO 2019).

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Population ageing in some countries will create shortages of qualified labour and promote the

reallocation of resources towards services like healthcare as consumer demand shifts from durable

goods towards services; meanwhile, countries with growing young workforces will experience the

opposite (OECD 2017a). Millennials are estimated to comprise more than 50% of the global

workforce, while by 2025, Gen Z will include around 27% of this workforce Schwartz et al. 2016;

PwC 2011; Koop 2021). Some research indicates that these groups prefer flexible and mobile

working environments, which increases the popularity of sharing and gig economies for freelance

workers and remote/hybrid work models for digital nomads (Deloitte 2016).

Deloitte (2022) highlights four key skills for operating across these new work structures: digital

tools and technology skills, comfort with analytics and data, business management skills, and design and creative skills. According to the former CEO of Upwork, 6 successful freelancers on the

platform are those with strong entrepreneurial and communication skills who continuously upskill

and can build effective reputations and relationships in addition to their hard/technical skills (see

Table 4) (Younger 2019). This statement is supported by other platforms confirming that beyond

technical skills, freelancers require core skills regardless of their industry/sector of operation.

These include writing and research, data analysis, problem-solving, IT, creativity and innovation,

marketing, project and portfolio management, networking and relationship management,

communication, and negotiation skills (ScreenSkills 2022; Indeed 2021; Younger 2019).

Table 4: Most In-Demand Skills on Freelance Arrangements

Upwork is an American freelancing platform considered one of the world's largest freelancing platforms, with over 3 million jobs posted annually. In their 2022 report, Upwork found that skilled remote freelancing has experienced steady growth, with 53% if all freelancers providing skilled services like computer programming or marketing over the last year. B elow is Upwork’s most in -demand skills list, revealing the growing importance of highly skilled independent talent. Top 10 most in-demand tech skills 1. Web Design 2. Word Press 3. Web Programming 4. Java Script 5. CSS 6. HTML 7. PHP 8. Shopify 9. API 10. Graphic Design Top 10 most in-demand marketing skills 1. Social media marketing 2. Lead generation 3. Facebook 4. SEO 6. Instagram 7. Marketing Strategy 8. Social Media Management 9. Email Marketing

6 Upwork is a globally renowned online freelancing platform.

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5.

B2B marketing

10. Marketing Research

Top 10 most in-demand customer service skills

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Customer Service Customer Support

6. 7. 8. 9.

Communication Etiquette

Online Chat Support

Email Communication

Answering Product Questions

Phone Support Email Support

Data Entry 10. Administrative Support

Source: Upwork (2022)

Evidence of modern working arrangements already exists in the Caribbean. For example, during

the COVID-19 pandemic, the National Commercial Bank in Jamaica launched a Gig Network

platform, and since its launch, over 3,000 freelancers have listed their services on the platform

(NCB 2022; Jamaica Gleaner 2020). Worrying though are the region’s demographic trends which

point towards an increasingly ageing population. Caribbean Council (2022) noted that Moody’s

Report found the Caribbean as having the highest net outward migration (especially of highly

educated, productive young people and women) and the highest age dependency ratio in the world,

with one- quarter of the region’s population expected to be over 60 and closer to 80 years old by

2050. These demographic trends create implications for shortages of qualified labour and the

reallocation of resources towards services like healthcare rather than durable goods, as previously

discussed.

1.2. An Overview of Existing Regional & National Skills Demand

The Caribbean has economically underperformed relative to other small states, with annual GDP growth rates averaging only 0.8% compared to 4.7% in other small states (OECD 2019b). 7

Structural imbalances (consistent current account deficits and unsustainable debt levels) and the

lack of competitiveness and productivity are the main sources of the region’s weak economic

growth (OECD 2019b; Alleyne 2018). Comprised largely of services-based economies heavily

dependent on the tourism sector, the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic has reignited

interest in economic diversification, which, with the entrance of new government administrations,

is giving rise to new priority sectors and development trajectories across many CARIFORUM

7 Statistics from the OECD (2019) study focus on Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Monserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago.

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states. This subsection provides an overview of the skills demand stemming from regional and

national priority sectors along with identified skills gaps among the private sector, which

ultimately develops these sectors through their businesses and in turn supports national and

regional development.

1.2.1. Regional and National Sector/Developmental Priorities

CARIFORUM states, with which this Consultancy is concerned, can be sub-divided into two

further main regional subgroupings: the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS). CARICOM comprises 15 Member States 8 and was

established in 1973 by the Treaty of Chaguaramas, which was later revised in 2001 to establish

the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME) (CARICOM 2022b). The OECS was formed

in 1981 through the Treaty of Basseterre, later revised in 2010 and comprises seven protocol members 9 (OECS 2022b). Meanwhile, the Caribbean Forum (CARIFORUM) was established in

1992 as a basis for economic dialogue with the European Union (EU) and comprises the 15

CARICOM member states and the Dominican Republic. CARIFORUM has two key trade

agreements, the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) signed in 2008 and

the CARIFORUM-UK EPA signed in 2021 following BREXIT. Table 5 highlights the regional

priority areas of work for each subgrouping. There is substantial regional interest in sectors like

agriculture, the digital economy, renewable energy, the orange economy, tourism, and the broader

services sector. Many projects, especially those highlighted under the OECS in Table 5, are geared

towards modernizing traditional sectors and exploiting untapped opportunities in new niche areas

like blue tourism, the green economy and FinTech. When undertaking primary research, these

sectors can be used to gain greater insight into the region’s sector -specific skills development

needs.

Table 5: Regional Priority Sectors & Developmental Areas

CARICOM

OECS

CARIFORUM

8 CARICOM’s 15 Member States include A ntigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Haiti, Jamaica, Grenada, Guyana, Montserrat, St. Lucia, Suriname, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and Tobago. 9 OECS protocol members include Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

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Agriculture CARICOM is committed to achieving a 20% reduction in the regional food import bill by 2025, having identified 19 potential investment opportunities for displacing extra-regional agri-food imports into member states. industries through initiatives like the Caribbean Festival of Arts (CARIFESTA). Energy Growing emphasis on energy diversification by leveraging hydrocarbon and solar resources across Member States to develop the renewable energy sector and reduce external energy dependency. Health & Health Services Following extreme stress on regional health care systems from the COVID-19 pandemic, Culture Advancing the creative

Agriculture Priorities include transforming agriculture with a focus on targeting non-traditional agriculture exports; alleviating poverty and food insecurity; developing and promoting agro-tourism services; developing synergies with CSME; mobilizing resources for implementation; strengthening the capacities of the OECS Agriculture Unit; securing water resources; and mitigating and adapting to the effects of climate change. Current projects include Blue BioTrade project focused on boosting Queen Conch trade; and INTERREG CambioNet Project focused on bioeconomic modernization of agriculture. Business Development Supporting business development in areas like Agri-business and Manufacturing ; Creative Sectors like craft, fashion, film, & music; and e-Business, Technology & Innovation . Apart from initiatives under these sectors, other programmes include The Technical Assistance and Coaching Programme for Youth Entrepreneurs focused on strengthening entrepreneurship and leadership skills among youth; The INTERREG Trade Enhancement for the Eastern Caribbean Project to accelerate trade; and The Eastern Caribbean Green Entrepreneurship Initiative to support the development of green businesses . Tourism Projects include niche marketing; The Community-Based Tourism Programme; heritage tourism ; The OECS Network of Excellence in Tourism and Hospitality Training and Education and the Eastern Caribbean Institute of Tourism; The INTERREG Odyssea Antilles Sustainable Nautical and Cultural Blue Routes Project focused on promoting the tourism blue economy/ blue tourism .

From the CARIFORUM-EU and-UK EPAs the following can be used as a guide to identifying priority sectors. EU investments in CARIFORUM: • Fuel Import & Distribution • Rum Industry • Tourism • Manufacturing & Services for Export • Renewable Energy • Infrastructure

Main EU goods exports to CARIFORUM (2019): •

Mineral Fuels (€687 million) Ships & Boats (€445 million) Motor Vehicles (€196 million)

• • • •

Milk (€138 million)

Wheat & Meslin (€138 million)

EU services sector liberalization: EU has liberalized more than 90% of services in the W120 list used as the basis for negotiations under the GATS in the WTO. These include Business Services , Communications , Construction, Distribution , Environmental , Financial , Transport , Tourism and Recreation Services , among others. CARIFORUM services sector liberalization: CARIFORUM’s sectoral coverage ranges between 65-75% but the Dominican Republic has liberalized more than 90% of services. Some main services sectors liberalized by CARIFORUM include: • Business services (accounting, architecture, engineering, etc) Computer and related services

CARICOM is focused on restructuring health care

systems to be more resilient to re-emerging and new diseases.

ICT for Development Following the COVID-19 pandemic CARICOM is

accelerating the implementation of its Single ICT Space which acts as the digital layer of the CSME. Other initiatives include the Girls in ICT initiative to bridge the digital gender divide and the Digital Skills Task Force launched in 2021 to assess current digital skills gaps.

• •

Research and development services Environmental services Management consultancy services Maritime transport services

• •

• • •

Entertainment services

Tourism services

Tourism Developing sustainable tourism models.

Main CARICOM goods exports to EU (2019)*:

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Natural gas, liquefied (US$465 million) Floating or submersible drilling or production platforms (US$ 406 million) "Methanol ""methyl alcohol"" (US$ 368 million) Aluminium oxide (excluding artificial corundum) (US$ 225 million) Gold, incl. gold plated with platinum, unwrought, for non monetary purposes (US$ 175 million)

Services Increasing investments and competitiveness in the modes of delivering services. Other cross-cutting areas of work include Statistics ; Crime and Security ; Education ; Environment and Sustainable Development ; Transportation ; Foreign Policies and Community Relations ; Trade Negotiations ; Gender ; Youth Development ; and Human Development .

•

Digital Transformation The Caribbean Digital

•

Transformation Project has three components including a digital ecosystem, digital infrastructure, platforms and services and digital skills and entrepreneurship. Current activities under this project include updating legislation and regulatory frameworks for digital financial services, developing an overarching payment system strategy for the region; undertaking a demand-side survey on financial literacy; and establishing a quality-of-service monitoring and enforcement methodology and capacity and a survey/assessment to identify the technical and soft skills in greatest demand among digitally enabled industries for the purpose of facilitating remote work. Other cross-cutting economic areas of work include Statistics and Trade . Other broad areas include Environmental Sustainability (Biodiversity, Climate and Disaster Resilience, Energy and Ocean Governance) , Human and Social ( Health, Pharmaceuticals Gender Equality, Social Development, Education, Youth ) and Diplomatic work areas.

•

•

•

*(Data sourced from ITC Trade Map)

Main Dominican Republic goods exports to EU (2019)*: • Fresh or dried bananas

(excluding plantains) (US$ 236 million) Ferro-nickel (US$ 108 million) Cocoa beans, whole or broken, raw or roasted (US$ 91 million) Instruments and appliances used in medical, surgical or veterinary sciences, n.e.s. (US$ 60 million) Rum and other spirits obtained by distilling fermented sugar cane products (US$ 53 million)

• •

•

•

*(Data sourced from ITC Trade Map)

Source: CARICOM (2022c); CARICOM (2022d); OECS (2022); European Commission (2020); OAS (2022); ITC Trade Map (2022)

These regional priorities are reflected by and large in the national priorities of many CARIFORUM

states. Most CARIFORUM states are considered services-based economies focused mainly on

tourism and financial services, except for Belize, Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad & Tobago

which are often considered commodities-based given their heavy dependence on the oil and gas,

mining, and agriculture sectors (Brathwaite, Nicholls, and Remy 2020). Annex 3 provides detailed

insights on updated national priority sectors drawing from the latest budget speeches and national

reports of each CARIFORUM state. Analysing the trends in Annex 3 reveals two key findings.

Firstly, apart from traditional sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism, several

countries are interested in new and innovative areas, particularly the digital economy and FinTech,

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blue and green economies (with a heavy focus on renewable energy), medicinal cannabis, and life

sciences. Secondly, even within traditional sectors, modernization and diversification drives are

seeing new product and service offerings being developed. For example, greater emphasis is being

placed on community-based tourism models and innovative agri-food systems that actively

leverage digital technologies.

Noteworthy is the growing role that the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are playing in

anchoring regional and national development trajectories. Beyond SDG 4 (Quality Education),

which directly speaks to skills from an education perspective, this goal has several links to other

SDG areas. Some of the most emphasized connections of SDG 4 across literature focus on linkages

with SDGs 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and 5 (Gender), and to a lesser extent with

others like SDGs 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), 11

(Sustainable Cities and Communities), 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) and 13

(Climate Action) (Vladimirovaa and Le Blancb 2015).

1 .2.2. Skills Gaps Among CARIFORUM’s Private Sector & Wider Labo ur Market

According to the Future of World and Skills Survey 2021, many businesses in the Caribbean

cannot use workforce analytics to predict and monitor skills gaps and identify future skills needs

(PWC 2021a). There is a lack of up-to-date skills and education needs assessments at the regional

and national levels. Perhaps the most recent comprehensive attempt wa s Compete Caribbean’s

Regional Private Sector Assessment Report in 2015 and the associated National Private Sector

Assessment Reports published in 2014. Despite not being dedicated, skills assessments made

relevant mention of the private sector’s skills needs at the time (Compete Caribbean 20 15). This

section builds on these reports, leveraging insights from recent sources, including national labour

market/skills assessments where available and priority training areas highlighted under national

development scholarship programmes in Annex 3, to identify cross-cutting skills gaps and more

sector-specific skills gaps.

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Cross-cutting Skills Gaps

This section highlights two of the most commonly cited cross-cutting skills gaps across existing

reports. This should not be considered an exhaustive list of cross-cutting skills gaps but rather a

starting point upon which the primary findings from this consultancy will add to and build from.

•

ICT/Digital Skills

Many of the 2014 National Private Sector Assessment Reports by Compete Caribbean

highlighted a lack of technological skills and the growing demand for such skills as

technology adoption becomes widespread across all sectors (Compete Caribbean 2015).

More recent studies, like the 2022 USAID Digital Ecosystem Country Assessment for the

Eastern and Southern Caribbean, reconfirm a lack of digital talent and an even more severe

deficit of technically skilled workers functioning in high-tech environments (Cowen et al.

2022). Among the specific ICT/digital skills gaps identified across different studies are

software development and engineering (including mobile app and web development),

programming, user interface and user experience design, multimedia development skills,

cybersecurity, information and database management, data protection and FinTech

regulation (Cowen et al. 2022; Belize Chamber of Commerce and International Labour

Organization 2018; Schoolderman, Bicer, and Valencia 2017). Many of these areas are also

identified as priority training areas under national development scholarship programmes of

many CARIFORUM states (see Annex 3), with some even highlighting training needs for

emerging tech (e.g. under the 2022 Barbados’ National Development Schola rship, an

outlined training priority area was AI in Learning and Gamification – see Annex 3).

Noteworthy also are the complementary skills highlighted by Pierre (2018) for successfully

deploying ICT skills, notably problem-solving and critical thinking, which are often

lacking. Although this finding was highlighted in the 2018 National Training Authority

Sector Study for Suriname, it still holds relevance for other CARIFORUM states.

Cybersecurity is one subset receiving increasing regional attention as digital transformation

accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the 2022 Caribbean Regional

Cybersecurity Training Needs Analysis, training is needed in the following cybersecurity

speciality areas: governance risk and compliance; cybersecurity architecture; incident

response; laws and data protection; cybersecurity architecture; cybersecurity research and

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