CARIFORUM and UK EPA Study

collation, data limitations were a concern of the Study. However, this Study utilized the most recently available data and estimates available particularly mirror data.

It is also noteworthy that during this assessment period, the legal terms governing trade between CARIFORUM and the UK remained unchanged under the CF-EU EPA, as the structural break from the EU did not occur until January 1, 2021. Thus, the analysis of the impact of the UK’s departure from the EU and the effect it will have on CARIFORUM-UK trade was limited to the first two (2) quarters of 2021, where data was available. Therefore, any inferences made regarding the effect of the structural break resulting from the shift from the CF-EU EPA to the CF-UK EPA involved some level of informed conjecture and qualitative analysis, in order to determine any possible trade diverting or trade creating effects of the latter agreement. These inferences were based on combination of methodologies, involving trend analysis and econometric modelling in addition to a critical assessment of other relevant statistics and economic variables, in attempting to identify and isolate the likely effect of the structural break which occurred at or around January 1, 2021. Data limitations must be clearly recognised given the likelihood that any anticipated effects on cross-border trade arising from the shift in the trading relationship between the two agreements will likely only be identified at a later point in time beyond the current assessment period. Although it is recognized that there will be a number of anticipatory effects that would have impacted the behaviour of traders and thus the resulting cross-border trade as we neared the endpoint of the assessment period.

2.2 Trade Partners to be Assessed

The Analysis must, of necessity, focus on the countries that are party to the CF-UK EPA. These include the following countries:

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