CARIFORUM and UK EPA Study

exports, utilising new technologies as well as focusing on areas such as the blue and green economy that will promote the development and resilience of the region. The ToR is geared toward identifying the opportunities available under the CF-UK EPA for trade and investment. It has long been established that simply greater market access to a rich country does not guarantee economic growth (Rodrik, 2007). In recognising that the negotiated Agreements will not in and of themselves generate the promised gains from trade, the ultimate measure of success will be that of export intensification and growth and the consequent impact that such export-led growth will have on the countries’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. Importantly, the ToR underscores sustainability and inclusivity as an underlying objective of the CF-UK EPA, which speaks to a larger concern regarding the need for the Agreement to result in benefit for all the Partners and all of their citizens. In addition, the identification of barriers will be critically important so that these can be addressed under the various mechanisms (treaty bodies) established under the CF-UK EPA to ensure that maximum benefit enures to all trading partners. This speaks to a pro-active rather than a reactive stance, which will be important guidance for the resulting recommendations that will be proffered by the Study. The results of which are expected to inform policy dialogue at the highest levels.

2. SCOPE OF DATA ANALYSIS AND SPECIFIC SECTORS

2.1 Time Period of Analysis and Implications for Policy Recommendations

For any assessment of trade and other relevant data, it is critical to define the period of data collection and analysis. The Terms of Reference thus require the analysis of data over the period 2008 to 2020. This Period of Analysis (PoA) coincides with the period during which the CF-EU EPA provisionally entered into force until the UK’s transition from the EU. Given the fact that, until December 2020, UK data was largely subsumed within EU data, coupled with the fact that a number of CARIFORUM States have very limited institutional mechanisms for data capture and

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