CARIFORUM and UK EPA Study

A simple linear projection indicates that it is likely that this trend will continue into 2021, as data for the first eight months of 2021 suggests. The deficit has been widening over the PoA. Both imports and exports dipped when the Pandemic hit (2019) and though there was a rebound in 2020, the levels of CF exports to the UK remained below CF imports from the UK.

Figure 1: Trend in CF Exports and Imports to the UK 2008 to August 2021

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

£'s million

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021 (Jan-August)

Year

Export to UK

Import from UK

Linear (Export to UK)

Source: ONS, Release October 2021

The uptake of trade in 2020, despite the pandemic, could have signalled some stockpiling.

Available data indicates that as a percentage of UK world imports, the share of CF exports to the UK (imports from CF) has been declining consistently since 2017 and consistent with the bilateral trend promises to continue to decline as a percentage of world imports.

Page 33 of 241