CARIFORUM and UK EPA Study

sterling promising to round out the year below that of its level in 2020. In its report to the UK parliament on Continuing the relationship with CF, the DTI (2019) noted previous studies that had predicted a significant impact on two-way trade flows of the CF-EU EPA however the first five year review of the EPA 8 , showed that shocks such as the global financial crisis had “directly and negatively affected the trade and development ambitions of the existing EPA and therefore made it difficult to assess the impact of the existing EPA”. The main impact of not continuing the relationship with the CF under the terms of the CF-EU EPA the DIT pointed out was the loss of preferences. It was noted that while any benefits gained since 2008 would disappear not all the benefits would have as yet materialized, as tariff implementation was scheduled until 2033. The costs of not ratifying would to a large extent depend on the reimposition of costs as a result. In effect in the face of uncertainty and achievements made, there seems to have been greater benefit to the UK of continuing the relationship. CARIFORUM Exporters after the signing of the EPAs saw an increase in exports to the UK, as the most recent ONS 9 data shows. This peaked in 2009 the year after signing of the EPAs and then gradually declined. However, numerous reports have pointed to the impact of the global financial crisis at this time on trade flows. Currently the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic also cannot be overlooked. In fact, when one looks at the shifting pattern of export products, it could signal opportunities created by the Pandemic. The overall trade balance with the UK after 2008 showed shift from a net surplus to a deficit.10 The marked shift occurred in 2015, with UK exports to CF (imports) outstripping UK Imports from CF (exports). Since then, the UK has exported more to CF, than CF has exported to the UK. 8 European Commission (2014), ’Monitoring the Implementation and Results of the CARIFORUM-EU EPA Agreement”. 9 Trade in goods: country by commodity, imports and exports’ datasets, Release Wednesday 13th October 2021(Release October 2021). 10 This study uses ONS data with CF to determine the regions trade flows. UK Imports from CF are treated as CF exports, and UK exports to CF are treated as CF imports.

Page 32 of 241