The Renewable Energy Industry in CARIFORUM Countries

COUNTRY INDICATOR ANALYSIS

The table on the opposite page, calculated the annual market value using the latter two methods which indicated a difference of 20% for the region with country level variations from 6% to 65%. This variation resulted primarily because the two approaches did not treat the proposed RE technologies in the same way. One approach based the estimate on a percentage of GDP while the other used a fixed MW replacement cost. It is therefore still necessary to conduct a detailed investment assessment of the market per country. Like all other currency references, Table 4.5 uses USD. Water heating, even though not a significant cost consideration for most MSMEs, it represents significant national energy consumption and a noticeable demand for the utility in the mornings and the evenings. The energy source may be electricity or some type of gas. The cost to users is acutely evident for countries with high energy rates and high water-service penetration. One previous study (USAID, 2008) presented a picture of a very attractive market for Solar Water Heating. Estimates from that study indicate a residential market of US$689M for 17 million people in 4.5M households across the Caribbean including BVI, Cuba and Turks and Caicos which are not a part of this study. The hotel industry was estimated at US$45.5M for 103,000 rooms. The countries not included in this study were excluded and the countries not included in the SWH were estimated. The data was also extrapolated to reflect a growing population. The estimated residential market breakdown is shown right. Using this estimate and 2030 as the 10-year target period for the countries, we can estimate the annual market for SWH in each country. Assumptions made are: - 1) Approximately US$2,000 per thermosiphon system (traditional) 2) 60% SWH penetration for Barbados 3) 0% SWH penetration for Trinidad and Tobago 4) 10% SWH penetrations for all other countries 5) 4 persons per household 6) Commercial SWH market is 2% of residential market for Belize, Dominica, Guyana, Haiti, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago 7) Commercial SWH market is 5% of residential market for all other countries While Barbados has a thriving market with approximately 60% penetration with the help of duty-free equipment imports and tax incentives, some countries struggle to gain any significant progress because of low energy prices or a lack of awareness and education in the market. Any movement towards realizing this market should learn from past lessons. Since SWH can offer as much as 20% savings on a household electricity bills, it would be beneficial to both householders and SWH firms to accelerate implementation. The export capacity is addressed later.

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The Renewable Energy Industry in CARIFORUM Countries