Enhancing India CARIFORUM Economic Relations and Prospects for Cooperation

percent of fiscal revenues. While for Guyana, which commenced commercial oil production in December 2019, it was projected that the energy sector would account for 33 percent of economic activity, 59 percent of export and 15 percent of fiscal revenues 11 . The economies in the CARIFORUM have promptly come into action and have implemented emergency fiscal and monetary measures, in order to mitigate the adverse impact of the pandemic. The fiscal measures have ranged from 1% to 4% of GDP (except Barbados, which announced a fiscal package of 19% of GDP) 12 . However, the higher fiscal outlays could pose a challenge to the debt sustainability for countries in the region. With the emergence of the COVID-19 vaccines and beginning of vaccination programs around the world, the year 2021 is expected to witness a sharp global economic recovery. The commodity prices have started firming up; however, tourism sector continues to slack. Of the 15 countries considered in this analysis, 10 are expected to post a positive real growth rate in 2021. Guyana is expected to post a double-digit growth rate, on the back of oil production and exports.

11 ECLAC- Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2020: Facing the Challenge of COVID-19 12 ECLAC- Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2020: Facing the Challenge of COVID-19

Macroeconomic Overview of the CARIFORUM Region

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