CARIFORUM and UK EPA Study

Table 2: CF Merchandise Trade Balance with the UK by Partner, current price in £'s million

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (Jan -18 -25 -28 -29 -23 -35 -30 -31 -40 -38 -30 -37 -39 -28 -38 -20 -37 -14 -41 -16 -18 -27 -17 -28 -52 -34 -30 -65 -7 -14 -8 -10 -13 -24 12 -13 -14 -13 -6 -8

August) 2008 to 2020

Antigua & Barbuda 34 -21

-97

Barbados Bahamas

-403 -372 732 -34 359 -94 254

Belize

42 59 -1 17 -3 -5 59 56

54 20

46 66 65 52 78 41 38 69 72 50 -4 -5 -4 -2 -6 -10 -9 -11 -12 -7 59 62 68 52 -15 59 27 -1 9 18 -24 -3 -4 -4 -6 -8 -9 -11 -14 -12 -8 -7 16 37 44 38 36 -4 24 1 -14 -45 -29 -2 -19 11 12 7 -12 -13 -10 -18 -3 -1 -6 -6 -1 -5 -8 -4 -8 -4 -7 -6 -3 36 -3 -2 -8 -10 -14 -13 -15 -16 -20 -10 24 -6

Dominica

Dominican Republic 19 15 -13

Grenada Guyana Jamaica St Lucia Suriname

-7

6

78 56 -17

70

St Kitts & Nevis

-8 -8 4 2

-6 -1

-77 -60

-7 -9 -11 -15 -14 -15 -9 -11 -11 -12 -7 -15 -10

-8

-146 541 -158

Trinidad & Tobago 80 251 207

77 -43 -8 44 -20 -62 13 1 -6 7 -34

St Vincent

-8 -8

-8 -11 -11 -16 -13 -11 -12 -14 -15 -15 -16

-8

Source: ONS, Release October 2021 ( reported totals)

The main countries registering a surplus over the period 2008 to 2020 were Belize, the Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago. The intervening trends, however, show a less consistent picture. In 2020 the countries having a surplus were Belize, the Dominican Republic, and Trinidad and Tobago, the top three exporters in that year. This pattern has shifted over the PoA. The top three CF exporters to the UK in 2008 by value, were Trinidad and Tobago ( 30.3%), Jamaica (20.3 %) and Guyana (12.5 %). In 2017 ( after the Brexit referendum in 2016), the top three exporters shifted. It should be noted that this was also over 10 years after the signing of the CF-EU EPA. We saw that while Trinidad continued to be a top exporter in 2017 (27.55 %), the Dominican Republic out stripped it for first place (28.63%), with third place going to Jamaica (13.88%) displacing Guyana’s third place spot in 2008. Guyana was only marginally outpaced by Jamaica. In 2020 Trinidad again took first place (40.72 %), with a share higher than its 2008 and 2017 levels by value. Second was the Dominican Republic (23.76 %) and third was Belize (12.90 %), displacing both Jamaica and Guyana from the top three. The top three exporters alone in 2020 accounted for approximately 77.38% of CF exports by value. These countries were also the top three exporters to the UK over the PoA (2008 to 2020).

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