CARIFORUM and UK EPA Study

It is, therefore, important to address the impact of these regulations (i.e., NTBs) in the context of the CF-UK EPA in order to minimise the impact on CF trade with the UK.

These issues should be closely monitored and addressed at the level of the relevant treaty bodies on a continuous basis.

In relation to the longer-term measures, the data suggests, as is well known, that there are structural issues within CARIFORUM economies that must be addressed, as evidenced by the PCI. These include, importantly, factors related to human capital, institutions, and the private sector. Addressing these will be necessary in order to assure the ability of CF countries to diversify their exports and reduce the level of concentration of their exports in just a few main products. The results of the Empirical Analysis show that, the average trade volume 65 of CF countries can be significantly explained by all the variables specified but show a stronger preference for the growth of the labor force and GDP. 66 This points to a sustainable effect as positive trade developments will impact on GDP, which in turn will make it more likely to achieve the attainment of specific SDG goals. The empirical analysis specifically finds that the growth of the labor force 67 drives export capacity . Additionally, using the PCI, the results show that this is also a significant driver of trade. In terms of the priority sectors, those exports that comprise greater value added are of greater benefit to the CF economies. However, it must be recognised that greater integration into GVCs may reduce the level of domestic value added, but at the same time result in greater advantages and may be more sustainable. Additionally, given the capacity constraints in the goods sector, and

65 Average volume of trade (exports and imports) in goods and services (as a percentage of GDP) 66 See Appendix IV- Part 2. 67 Labour force comprises people ages 15 and older who supply labour for the production of goods and services during a specified period.

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