CARIFORUM and UK EPA Study

The PCI is useful in that it speaks to the country specific conditions, namely opportunities, constraints, and comparative advantages. There is also an inverse relationship between export concentration and the PCI. Indicating that, as countries achieve greater sustainability (as measured by their PCI), this is also reflected in the lower concentration of their exports in a few commodities. This speaks to a greater ability to deal with and absorb external shocks and make the outcome of trade interventions more sustainable. The index scores a country’s performance on a score of 1 to 100. The top performers in the Caribbean as reported by UNCTAD being, Bermuda, ranked 16th globally, Barbados (40th) and Trinidad and Tobago (48th) (2018 data). 59 The Overall PCI score 60 for the top performing CF-UK EPA partners in 2018, were attributed to Barbados with an index value of 38.4 and Trinidad and Tobago with a value of 36.7. In 2018 the average scores for the 12 CF-UK EPA Partners for which data was available was 34.15. This compares with a score for the UK of 46.2. The dimensions in which Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago had a component over 50 were Private Sector and Institutions. 61 Comparison with the UK, shows that it has scores over 50 in the dimensions of Human capital, Natural capital, Institutions and Private Sector. This is also the case for one of the top performing economies overall and in Asia – that is, Singapore. The results from the empirical analysis 62 noted the following in relation to the labour force, which can be used as a proxy for human capital: (i) The growth of the labor force can enhance export capacity. A negative shock to the growth of the labor force has the potential of adversely affecting exports for about 2 years.

59 https://unctad.org/news/productive-capacities-index-helps-countries-build-economic-resilience 60 The overall PCI score is the geometric average of the values of the eight PCI categories, namely, natural capital, human capital, energy, transport, ICT, institutions, structural change and private sector (UNCTAD).

61 See Appendix I. 62 See Appendix IV.

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