CARIFORUM and UK EPA Study

This is against the background that the UK is not a top-five trade partner for most CF countries. While exports of goods to the UK has declined in value terms over the period 2008 to 2020 ( the study’s period of analysis), the region exhibited a greater degree of diversification in its trade partners. The region also exhibited a high degree of concentration in its exports to the UK, with exports being concentrated in eleven (11) tariff lines (at the HS 2-digit level), which accounted for 1% or more of all products exported to the UK over the period of analysis. Additionally, the Product Concentration Index (Import) measures for each country, the degree of concentration of goods imported suggest greater and lesser degrees of integration into the global economy of CF Partners. The Indices confirm that for CF, its exports are concentrated in a small number of products, and while CF countries are relatively open economies, there is not the same degree of integration into the global economy. Continuing with the characteristic of “concentration”, CF exports to the UK are also concentrated in only a few countries. In 2020 three countries accounted for approximately 77% of trade to the UK, being Trinidad and Tobago, the Dominican Republic and Belize. In respect of export diversification, the index utilised in this study assesses the degree to which the structure of exports by product of a given economy or group of economies differs from the world pattern. CF trade exhibits a greater degree of variability for some countries. However, on average the value of the index for CF countries generally tends toward 1 rather than zero, indicating less diversification. On the services side CF trade in services shows a more robust picture with exports of services showing a positive growth trend. This resulted in an overall trade surplus in favour of CF. For the Top Five services traded with the UK, CF only dominated in the area of travel services exports which was also the largest services activity traded between the two, and the area of greatest competitive advantage for the region. This flow was the most valuable between the partners, which accounted for the surplus with the UK. Among the modes of supply, mode 2 and mode 1 dominated total CF export flows to the UK. Commensurately, the supply of exports via Mode 2

Page 14 of 241